Is the benefit of the housing tax credit overstated

If the credit could be applied  the down payment this would make more sense.

  • Many think the credits benefit is exaggerated. Instead I ask which comes first the mortgage or the down payment? Congress is close to extending the credit. In fact they are considering extending the credit to existing home owners. That new credit would be up to $6500. But that might not work because many of those buyers are locked into a home that has lost value and may not be salable right now. If that credit is allowed for investment property then you might again accelerate sales. The senate has proposed the extension of the $8000 first time buyer’s credit until April 30, 2010. If the credit is extended over the winter just how much will it affect sales? That is the slow time of the year for real estate. Will the credit improve sales at the slowest time of the year?  Does the credit simply accelerate purchases that were going to take place anyway? That was the criticism of the “Cash for Clunkers” program. I think that the cash for clunkers was a major bust. Most of the cars purchased were foreign made. It really didn’t help domestic production.
  • The way the first time buyer’s credit is set up really doesn’t help create sales. The only way it could do that would be to have the credit function as the down payment. Consider this: To buy a big ticket item you have to save up the down payment. Most of the users of the credit are using FHA mortgages. The FHA mortgage requires a 3.5% down payment. There are 2 valid schools of thought here. One thought is that in order for the buyer to value the home they need “skin in the game”. By that they mean money out of their own pockets. The other idea of stimulating the economy wants to create home sales. If you allowed the tax credit to be used as part of the down payment I think you would actually create sales. The trick is the mechanism used to equate the credit into the down payment. Since the credit is refundable that should be easy. By refundable I mean you can get the credit even if you didn’t pay any taxes. Since the credit exists many FHA mortgage applicants are getting “Gifts” from family members. I think that many of these gifts will be repaid from the tax credits, I don’t want to look in that horse’s mouth.
  • OK we have had 4 months in a row of increasing home sales. Is that connected to the credit? Nobody knows. “Failure to act now could derail the fragile housing recovery even before it takes root,” said Jerry Howard of the National Association of Home Builders. He said this to congress Wednesday urging them to stretch the tax credit out even longer than presently considered. Howard estimates that the credit has helped to create 200,000 jobs, helped drive home sales up, stem foreclosures and stabilize prices. I will just bet he thinks the credit is better than hot and clod running water too. Howard’s claims seem exaggerated to me. Some economists think as I do that the credit’s impact is overstate.
  • Recently a report was released stating that a huge amount of fraud was connected to the credit. I question the timing of the release of this report. I also think the government’s incompetence is the real problem. If the federal government can’t run the economy, social security, Medicare, Medicaid or the VA hospitals what makes everyone thing they can run this? I will not go off on a rant about government incompetence but really think about this in that light.

In the end the tax credit will cost the US Taxpayer far more than the actual dollar amount of the credit. Fraud and waste and incompetence will double or even triple the cost to you and I. It just might create more bad FHA mortgages out there that you and I have to pay for.

More thoughts and ideas on my web site.

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One Response to “Is the benefit of the housing tax credit overstated”

  1. Matt says:

    Hi Jim,
    Good looking site. I can tell you’re one of Chad’s followers. I hope you’ve been having some luck with the search engines. It’s a bit more difficult to rank that I originally thought.
    -Matt

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